Imagining futures through speculative design
Horizon scanning initially anticipated futures outcomes through identifying "drivers” (underlying causal trends) and "signals" (indicators of potential changes). Then comprehensive review of existing futures research and speculative media mapped outcomes within a scope wheel, allowing for a taxonomy of signals and drivers across social, technological, environmental and ecological, economic, political, and values factors. The categories were broken into sub-groups and categories in a relational database that defined more granular themes. Through this, 136 outcomes were mapped with multi-categorical relationships.
Trend analysis sought to interpret and prospect the findings using informed and convergent speculative thinking. First, the outcomes in the database were labelled according to the likely time of occurrence. Next, an impact-uncertainty matrix plotted the outcomes to define their urgency and severity. Lastly, a futures wheel considered each outcome and extrapolated a chain of potential consequences.
Worldbuilding defined the broad outcomes into definitive futures by identifying two critical vectors of change, creating a map that plotted different future scenarios. In vector A, absolutism and pluralism describe a tension between hegemony and multiplicity. In vector B, the loss of agency and shift toward privacy describe competing trends of big data analytics and distributed technologies.
Using these vectors, ten worlds were mapped on a scenario matrix. These scenarios were expanded through speculative design fiction and were mapped on a futures cone to illustrate how the scenarios may emerge. The projected scenario was “Surveillance Capitalism”, representing a world where large technology companies centralise power, data, and capital, thus exerting control over individuals and affecting their agency. The preferred scenario was “Distributive Agency”, describing a world where there is a decentralisation of power, data, and capital through market diversity, distributed ledger technologies, and political pluralism; thus, individuals and communities have agency.
Backcasting was a strategic planning process used to work backwards from the preferred future to define actionable steps that create transitions. Similar to how technology transfer seeks inspiration from alternative domains, knowledge transfer was a strategic process of exploring robust research and theories in social science, anthropology, and the humanities to validate the proposed values since they were initially speculative and idealistic. This process developed the final framework, which paired speculation with academic knowledge, resulting in 72 values across six principles of change targeting six systemic challenges.